X-Message-Number: 5266 From: (Thomas Donaldson) Subject: Effects of immortality, effects of the "singularity" Date: Sun, 26 Nov 1995 14:13:13 -0800 (PST) Hi again! First, I agree with Saul Kent almost completely about the effects of a very much longer lifespan. Anyone who has read my comments on such matters may have already guessed that. And those effects will happen not because we would all have become supervirtuous, but because self interest will require it. If we are all of the same physical and mental condition, for instance, it will no longer be the case that only young men are sent to war (if war will exist in that future time). Not only that, but any rational leader will know that his/her leadership will not last forever, and that someday (especially if he or she makes a practice of warfare) they too will be drafted. War, of course, is only one of the most visible means by which human beings make life hard (or impossible!) for one another. And if you think that any such thing will also happen to YOU, even if not now but someday, and have the kind of long time perspective that great longevity provides, you will think many times before you commit such acts. As for Mr. Clark's posting, I have several comments. The first of them is that (as anyone with a hint of maths knows already) exponential functions DO NOT HAVE SINGULARITIES. At first this may seem a trivial point with his blathering about THE singularity, but in fact for several hundred years now we have been advancing exponentially. We are already living in such a world, and we have all adapted to it. That is precisely what those who invest in new companies with new ideas are doing NOW. And if you read much history, have been doing for some time. Advances just don't all happen at once, even if everyone sees at one time that they will happen someday. That understanding, if and when it happens, does not immediately bring on those events. Lots of things have to happen before then. And the things which have to happen aren't just technical, though even in technology there will usually be some time taken with preparation. Coming down to fundamentals (meaning I will ignore politics, law, etc) we must settle on just what it is we want, collectively and individually, from some new advance. This is in addition to the technical problems which must be solved. Could we leave all these choices to computers (nanosized or planet-sized won't matter)? NO. We must decide what WE want. We can certainly be helped by using computers, but the ultimate choice comes down to us. And that will not be easy. Of course, some people may choose to abdicate their role, and leave it all to computers --- I am not saying that computers cannot make choices. Of course, they can abdicate now in lots of ways, of the kinds I mentioned in my last message: heroin, opium, alcohol,... many ways. There are lots of ways in which (fundamentally) we can choose to die. But if you choose to live, then YOU must make the choices. Certainly "exponential" can be very fast. But there will be no Singularity. And I personally will say that this notion of a Singularity stinks of the Christian idea of the Second Coming, after which the virtuous will all be translated to Heaven (supercalifragilistic computers, perhaps?). Of course, the one singularity we each hope to experience may happen to each of us as individuals (but sorry, it may not). And that is our impressions and thoughts if and when we are revived from suspension. But even that is not a singularity in the world but in our own individual lives, and will come differently to each of us. I will leave The Singularity to the Nanotechnology people, with all their other reworked myths. Best, and long long life, Thomas Donaldson Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=5266