X-Message-Number: 5531
Date: 02 Jan 96 20:36:47 EST
From: "Mark A. Plus" <>
Subject: Re: Simon says 

In CryoNet #5517, Peter Merel writes:

>> This is
>> contrary to the Malthusian idea that population increases faster than the
>> means of sustenance and continues to do so until the living standard has
>> fallen to its lowest level. 
>
> I agree that this notion is also mistaken - you have only to observe the
> population density in Japan, Taiwan, Indonesia and Hong Kong to see the
> lie. Many minds, educated minds, make light work.

Yes, but consider what happened in Japan, Taiwan, and also South Korea as they
industrialized:  They had to convert a lot of their farmland over to industrial
uses, and in the process they switched from agricultural self-sufficiency to
permanent dependency on food imports.  Not to worry, though; with their
mercantilist trade policies they could build up the financial surpluses
necessary to pay for the imported grain.  Since only a couple hundred million

more people had to be fed, the world grain market could handle the extra demand.

Now, in the last couple years, China has stopped exporting grain and started
importing it, apparently following the pattern set by the smaller East Asian

trading states.  With its rapid industrialization and rising real wages, China's
demands on the world grain market will present a whole new set of challenges
because of its much greater population.  For example, Lester Brown of the
Worldwatch Institute points out that if the Chinese double their per capita egg
consumption by the year 2000 (one of the Chinese government's economic goals),
the additional grain required will exceed Australia's annual production.  In my

personal correspondence with Julian L. Simon, he seems unconcerned about China's
extra demand for grain.  I'm not so easily persuaded, though the agricultural
boom in Brazil's cerrado country could offset China's impact on world grain
supplies.


China's growing purchasing power and dependency on grain imports may provide the
test case for a lot of predictions in the Extropian/Steward debate over
environmental changes and the quality of life in the future.

Mark Aristos Plus, Minister of Venturism.
By working hard and saving my money (which I reluctantly have to use in the
meantime), I intend to become an abiolytic >H and a facultative anagorobe.

Look out for my Web Page, still under construction, which will debut sometime in
January.
"I look for her who shall never have to leave me."


Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=5531