X-Message-Number: 5634
Date: Fri, 19 Jan 1996 09:08:51 -0500 (EST)
From: Robin Helweg-Larsen <>
Subject: Re: Chances of Revival

I put my chances of being successfully frozen at 80% (because I travel a 
lot, and because I've seen how wrong things can go for someone like Rob 
Michels who did most things right); and, if frozen, at 80% that I'll be 
successfully revived.  In other words, I believe I'm more likely than not 
to make it into Indefinite Lifespan.

80% revival chances may seem high, but it seems logical to me that there 
is NO QUESTION that suspension, revival, rejuvenation, etc will be fully 
operable within 1,000 years.  Therefore a perfect wholebody suspension of 
a young person in good health except for some fatal accident or 
easily-cured problem may allow (imperfect) revival within 100 years.  A 
half-decent whole-body suspension of someone with a lot of physical 
problems should allow perfect revival within 200 years.  And ultimately 
(1000 years, say)
our gray matter will create whole new gray areas of identity, as creative 
reconstruction will allow traces of the brain to produce a whole mind 
which will not be entirely the same as the original, but not entirely 
different either (Thomas Donaldson has written a wonderful short story on 
this theme).  

I am 100% expecting revival to be operational within 200 
years, but because of all the things that can wrong in individual 
circumstances, I reduce the chance of my own revival to 80%.

Always optimistically,

Robin HL


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