X-Message-Number: 5659 Date: 24 Jan 1996 07:05:29 U From: "Norton, Brook" <> Subject: Chances of Revival Once all the pieces came together for me, that cryonics was a rational way to possibly defeat Death, I had to reprioritize my goals in life. If cryonics is real, how much of the precious time during my "natural life" should I devote to being sure I am suspended, and to promoting cryonics in general? Well if the odds of a successful revival are only a million to one, even though this is not zero, I wouldn't be interested in devoting much of my time to cryonics on the SLIM chance it worked. However, if the odds are, say in the 5-10% range, then things are getting interesting. If the odds are, say in 50% range, then cryonics should become a big priority for me. So as some of you may have seen in The Immortalist about 2 years ago, I put together a spreadsheet to take your estimate of the odds for each of the pieces that go into a successful revival, and then combine all the pieces for a total estimate for success. Some have criticized that its not reasonable to try to estimate the odds of success because there are so many unknowns that any guess is a poor one, but I disagree. If you input your optimistic estimates, then your pessimistic estimates, then your best guess estimates, you develop a feel for the order of magnitudes involved. If your most optimistic estimate yeilds a 1 in 10,000 chance of success, maybe you should spend your time doing something else. If your optimistic/pessimistic estimates range from 80 to 1% chance of success, this also tells you something... that there is a large degree of uncertainty, but that the range includes a good chance for success, and that devoting much time and money may be a wise investment. Below I've listed all the pieces I included as neccesary for a successful revival, along with my best guess estimates and the final odds for survival based on these inputs. Inputs: The inputs often take the form of "what are the odds that a natural disaster will destroy the patient in a 20 year interval. Then, the spreadsheet calculates the odds that a natural disaster will occur as time marches on for the frozen patient. * Odds that science will cure you of old age before you deanimate: 5% * Odds that you will be destroyed very shortly after deanimation (such as autopsy, deanimation in remote location, poor suspension, etc.): 5% * your current age: 33 * your age when you deanimate: 83 * natural disaster occurs in each 20 yr period (fire, flood, quake, etc): 3% * storage failure occurs in each 20 yr period (leak, human error, sabbatoge, etc.): I start at 5% for first 20 yr period and decrease to 1% in later periods as the cryonics industry matures. * storage co. financial failure in each 20 yr period: I start at 20% in first 20 yr period and decrease to 10% in later yrs. * government interference occurs in each 20 yr period (coroner, cryonics outlawed, etc.): 3% * other misc disasters occur in each 20 yr period: 3% * odds that affordable reanimation technology will be available in each 20 yr period: I start at 5% for the first 20 yr period and increase to 50% in 150 years from now and continue to increase to 97% in 250 yrs from now. Outputs: The outputs in the spreadsheet are shown graphically over the next few hundred years, the graphical outputs are: * odds that reanimation technology will become affordable vs. time (a repeat of your input) * the odds that any disaster will distroy the patient vs. time * the odds that the patient will still be frozen vs time * the odds that the patient will be reanimated in each 20 year period vs time * the odds that the patient will be reanimated by this time vs. time And finally a single value for the odds of not dying of old age (either by curing old age before you deanimate or by a successful reanimation): 35% 35% for me is very encouraging, so I'm in it for the long haul. This spreadsheet is designed to be simple to use and I would encourage anyone interested in pluging in their own estimates to e-mail me privately, and we'll get a copy of the spreadsheet to you. Brook Norton Aerodynamicist, McDonnell Douglas, Long Bch CA Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=5659