X-Message-Number: 5871
From: eli+@GS160.SP.CS.CMU.EDU
Subject: Re: CryoNet #5868 - #5870
Date: Mon, 4 Mar 96 11:47:13 EST

Mike Perry writes:
>Even though a condition of total invulnerability is never reached
>(and it would be unrealistic to think it could be reached),
>the overall probability of dying is only about 2%, i.e. there is a 98% 
>chance of literally infinite survival. 

"Literally infinite" in the mathematical model, where you can view the
whole process /sub specie aeternitatis/.  In the world, you can at
best claim unbounded rather than infinite survival.  Furthermore, such
a claim is a claim about the future for all time, and a strong one at
that (is it likely that there is *no* non-zero lower bound on risk?).
This makes it hard to support empirically.

--
   Eli Brandt
   eli+@cs.cmu.edu


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