X-Message-Number: 6113
Date: Tue, 23 Apr 1996 04:43:09 -0500 (CDT)
From: Don Ashley <>
Subject: Re: CryoNet #6112

Perhaps Mr. Norton, Brook would like to share some statistics for 
Improving one's own odds for survival?

On Tue, 23 Apr -1, CryoNet wrote:

> CryoNet - Tue 23 Apr 1996
>     #6112: Improving your own odds of survival [Norton, Brook]
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------
> Message #6112
> Date: 22 Apr 1996 06:48:55 U
> From: "Norton, Brook" <>
> Subject: Improving your own odds of survival
> Thomas Donaldson writes, in regards to Mr Sharman's attempt to quantify the
> odds of survival:
> >And as a general point about such survival, it's quite wrong to sit and
> >work out probabilities: the arithmetic isn't at issue, what is at issue
> >is the fact that we are doing something to influence our own fate. And
> >that can make such simple calculations quite wrong.

> I've done some work to help quantify one's odds of survival.  You input into a
> spreadsheet stuff like, odds of earthquake = 2% in 20 yr period, odds of

> affordable nanotechnology in 100 yrs = 5%, etc., etc.  Some of the inputs like
> "odds of cryonics facility going bankrupt" can be affected by you before you
> deanimate.  Mr Donaldson's concern is that, since you can affect the odds

> yourself, then you can't use a this type of statistical method to quantify the
> odds.  However, there is really no problem here, if you just take your own
> efforts into account when you estimate the odds.  Just rephrase the estimate
> like: "odds of cryonics facility going bankrupt (considering that I will be
> working to prevent bankruptcy)".
> Granted, there is a large margin of uncertainty in estimating the odds of
> various pertinent future events, but you can nevertheless create a framework

> (spreadsheet or other program) to correctly quantify the odds based on your 
> best estimates.
> Brook Norton
> Aerodynamics, McDonnell Douglas
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------
> End of CryoNet Digest
> *********************

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