X-Message-Number: 6117
From:  (David Stodolsky)
Subject: Re: Improving your own odds of survival
Date: Tue, 23 Apr 96 20:39:42 +0100

In Regards to your letter <>:
> Granted, there is a large margin of uncertainty in estimating the odds of
> various pertinent future events, but you can nevertheless create a framework

> (spreadsheet or other program) to correctly quantify the odds based on your 
> best estimates.

Sometimes it is better to admit you know nothing at all:

Wakker, P. Belief functions are based on the principle of complete
ignorance. Presented at Dept. of Economics, University of Copenhagen,
Nov. 1, 1995.

Abstract: Necessary and sufficient conditions are given for preference
behavior to be based on an objective, extraneously given, belief function
in the sense of Dempster. The decision-theoretic foundation reveals
a crucial role for the principle of complete ignorance in a two-stage
framework underlying belief functions. Thus belief functions can be
understood as a strict attempt to avoid any use of subjective information
and to rather, in the absence of objective information, stick to
principles of complete ignorance....

author address:
Medical Decision Making Unit
Univ. of Leiden, The Netherlands 

David S. Stodolsky      PGP KeyID: B830DF31       
   Tel.: +45 38 33 03 30   Fax: +45 38 33 88 80 (C)

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