X-Message-Number: 6142 From: (Thomas Donaldson) Subject: To Peter Merel Date: Sun, 5 May 1996 16:00:13 -0700 (PDT) Hi! This note is to answer a question which I never got round to answering before I was pulled away by other activities. I had stated that in terms of centuries (but not decades) we probably were close to the limits of the Earth, and would have to either move into space or become static and eventually die off. Peter Merel asked me to explain, so here is why I think that. Very simple, really. Thermodynamics, as in waste heat release. There has been, historically, a very long trend in which the energy used by each individual on earth has increased. Certainly there have been periods in which it temporarily went down, but they've been followed by others in which it went up even more. I can no more predict the REASON for that energy use than someone 300 years ago could have predicted automobiles, trains, and airplanes, but I think this increase is NOT going to stop --- nanotechnology, conservation, new materials, or whatever. After all, even if we make devices which use far less energy than similar devices do now, that just means we can do more and have more at the same level of energy. Does any reader, especially any cryonicist, believe that we will then happily stop right there? Some years ago I wrote an article on everyday life in the future for Pat Dewey's old LONG LIFE MAGAZINE. I didn't so much look at particular technology but instead just looked at historical trends. For energy use, our waste heat output will equal about 1% of the Sun's input to the Earth about 300 years from now. Do I "believe" that figure? Well, not exactly, but I do think it's telling us something. And I hardly think this is a pessimistic point. After all, as so many conservationists seem unable to grasp, we live in a Solar System, not just on a planet. And if and when that transition from living on the Earth to living in the Solar System happens for everyone, they will probably not notice it as a painful event (they may not notice it at all) but be glad because now they had an entire large satellite to live in with their friends (or even alone) ... much more real estate per person than on Earth. Our very own O'Neill habitat, for ourselves and our friends. So that's why I think that we will pass the limits of the Earth. And I'm if anything a technological optimist. Best and long long life, Thomas Donaldson Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=6142