X-Message-Number: 7079
From:  ( RON   SELKOVITCH)
Date: Sat, 26 Oct 1996 14:50:53, -0500
Subject: goats once more with feeling

John Clark writes:

<A simulation is no better than the program it is written in>

Agreed, but it's interesting that simulations written independently still
give the same result (1/3,2/3)

<There are only 24 possibilities and I enumerated every one of them>

Yes, but you assigned equal probabilities to each one of them and thats not
the case.If you consider the first four possibilities in your list:

<Possi-   Car  Goat   Goat    You     Monty  Winning
bility        Black  White   choose   opens  choice
__________________________________________________
          D    O      O       R      #

  A       1    2      3       1      2      Stick
  B       1    2      3       1      3      Stick
  C       1    2      3       2      3      Switch
  D       1    2      3       3      2      Switch>

The choice of door 1 appears twice, while the others choices only appear
once. The probabilities associated with lines A and B occuring should only
be assigned half the probability of C or D.
Then adding the total probabilities will give you the correct result. (1/3,2/3)

My apologies to those who think that this subject is not appropriate to
Cryonet, but a little diversion is sometimes welcome.

Ron S


Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=7079