X-Message-Number: 7081
From: 
Date: Sun, 27 Oct 1996 12:00:13 -0500
Subject: economics, cryonics

Ron Selkovitch (#7080) seems to think that capitalism will not survive "into
the future" and that we are kidding ourselves if we think we or our
organizations can get rich through compound interest while we are in
cryostasis. It seems to me these remarks are greatly oversimplified and leave
important considerations out of account.

First of all, it is extremely close to certainty that capitalism in the U.S.
will survive into the future, since tomorrow is the future. Maybe even past
the election. More seriously, probably for decades at least. A few decades
might be enough for some of our organizations to amass great wealth AND for
at least some of our patients to reach the stage of candidacy for revival and
rejuvenation. (If the Visser technology can be adapted to cryonics, for
example--and CI, Alcor, the Vissers and collaborators around the world are
working on this or related projects--our patients in the next few years might
suffer much less damage than our previous ones.)

Secondly, if capitalism eventually becomes obsolete, what will replace it? 

As far as I can see, the only likely way capitalism could wither would be for
individuals or families to become essentially self-sufficient through
full-blown nanotech and AI. If every individual or family possesses an
"intelligent" machine, capable of reproduction and self-improvement as well
as general-purpose fabrication; and if such machines are made safe by making
them effectively extensions of the human brain; and if they use full-blown
nanotech and have access to some reasonable minimum of matter and energy;
then these machines could provide almost everything one might want, including
goods, information, advice, medical services, whatever. In such a milieu,
there might be greatly reduced need for trade or commerce and for any
credit/debit system. 

Of course, one can always imagine a dark side. There might still exist
potential and desire for unusual power or influence, based on possession of
unusual amounts and types of matter, energy, or organization. Maybe "wealth"
would consist of possession of extraordinary memory and bandwidth and speed,
as well as physical productive capacity, in one's machines. There might still
be those who want to be bigger and stronger and impose their will on others. 

However, it seems to me MUCH more likely that, in a world of immortals,  with
so much more to lose and with no one desperate or in want, mental health and
cooperation would become the norm--eventually. There will certainly be a very
dangerous transition period, and that will provide our major challenges.

But my main point, in the context of Mr. Selkovitch's remarks, is that if
society reaches this stage before our revival--essentially everyone with
essentially unlimited wealth--then we will wake up unimaginably rich, with or
without continued compound interest.  

Finally, it is very possible that all these sea changes will take much longer
than the optimists now predict, and capitalism might last for centuries, with
the old-fashioned kind of compound interest faithfully at work.

And the reminder: CI, Dr. Pichugin, and Alcor have already begun working on
projects related to adaptation of the Visser technology to cryonics; and
collaborators on five continents are working on aspects related to organ
banking. Your donations might speed up the work, with obvious implications
for you and your family. Tax deductible donations can be made to the
Immortalist Society, 24355 Sorrentino Court, Clinton Township MI 48035.

Robert Ettinger
Cryonics Institute
Immortalist Society


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