X-Message-Number: 7262
From: Peter Merel <>
Subject: Re: Millenialism
Date: Thu, 5 Dec 1996 23:13:30 +1100 (EST)

Rick Fiedlander writes,

>Read Marshall Savage's seminal "Millennial
>Project" for more on that not to mention terra-forming the moon and Mars to
>provide room for plenty more.  All this can be done with current technology,
>as Mr. Savage spells out.  

While I feel considerable sympathy with Savage's Millenial ideals, I'm
afraid I have to fault his reasoning about means. So far as I can see,
the only way we're going to avert a major human dieback in the next
hundred years, and I mean a dieback on the order of 3 in 4 humans killed
directly or indirectly as the result of famine, and with a concommitant
impact on global ecology and human culture, is via the development of
molecular nanotechnology. Present-day technology just won't cut it.

While this conclusion may seem remarkably pessimistic I think there is
sufficient evidence at hand to make it fairly plain. Although, the last
time this subject came up on cryonet, considerable fuss was made of Julian 
Simon's arguments against resource scarcity, there are excellent reasons 
to disregard such arguments. For a convincing demolition of Simon read
"http://csf.Colorado.EDU/authors/hanson/page27.htm#HIS_ULTIMATE_RESOURCE".
More general causes for alarm are detailed on the up-wing homepage at
"http://www.zip.com.au/~pete/uw.html".

So, while I wish the Millenialists every success, I can't help but think
that any resources a rational longevist might happen to have to spare would
be much better directed towards organisations like Drexler's Foresight
Institute and/or Wakfer's Prometheus Project. YMMV.

Peter Merel.


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