X-Message-Number: 8370
Date: Tue, 15 Jul 1997 10:11:30 -0400 (EDT)
From: "Roderick A. Carder-Russell" <>
Subject: Re: CryoNet #8368 - #8369
On Tue, 15 Jul 1997, Marty Nemko wrote:
> I have been contemplating signing up with CryoCare or Alcor for a long
> time, and wonder why I, a person not otherwise prone to procrastination,
> continue to defer making this decision.
>
> It seems that it hinges on my analysis that the probability of
> satisfactory revival is so close to zero (e.g., less than 1 in a
> billion)... I would love to be disabused of
> my notion that the probability of satisfactory revival is truly less
> than 1 in a billion.
>
> The probability of my actually being suspended (e.g., not lost at sea,
> last-minute objections from family or physician)
This is why many cryonicists are forming local groups and "buddy"
systems. These would be groups or individuals surrounding the member who
fully support their decision, and are willing to see to it that, if need
be, you recieve a smooth suspension, without unneccesary complications.
> the probability of a suspension timely enough to retain my memories
>
Certainly one cannot absolutely guard against this, but again,
a supportive atmosphere surrounding the member will help to assure a
timely suspension, as well as the continued growth and reach of your
organization.
> the probabililty that I will remain frozen for the hundred(s) of years
> until it becomes possible to be revived
>
> the probability that a natural disaster (e.g., nuclear war, earthquake,
> etc) does not destroy my body
There are many factors involved here, but the simple fact that you
cannot guarantee anything with one hunderd percent certainty remains.
There are numerous fail safes in place though. Many storage facilities
are in locations not prone to natural disasters and have decent security.
Worried about the possibility of nuclear war? Despite this possibility,
your best chance to stay alive is STILL with cryonics, the cold ground is
an unacceptable alternative.
> the probability that my memories will be retained during the hundred(s)
> of years
Provided that they are retained during suspension, the storage
temperature creates a very low possibility that any information will be
lost.
> the probability that there are funds in my patient care account to
> revive me
Many organizations are working on ways in which to provide for
revival, these include patient care funds that have earned interest, to
payback methods after your revival. When revival becomes possible, I
believe that finding the funds will not be an overwhelming problem.
Cryonics organizations are working today to provide for your revival in
the future.
> the probability that my cryonics organization or subsequent designee
> remains in business and willing and able to revive me
This is where you take a gamble. If you sign with a fly by night
organization, you are running the risk of them not being able to care for
you. Some organizations, however, have set up seperate funds to
perpetually care for the patients, even in the event of the organizations
dissolution. Moreover, some organizations are firmly established and are
only moving forward, and have taken measures to guard against failure.
Also take into account that some organizations are not "companies",
lowering the risk of financial failures due to poor "sales". The
willingness of the organization to revive you is another matter entirely.
There are efforts being made to give the choices involved in a revival to
the patient themselves, based upon their wishes prior to being suspended.
Keep in mind that those who are leading and will be leading the
organizations are the very same people who wish to be suspended. We care
for our fellow man, and would not do something unethical to someone brave
enough to travel the road to the future with us.
> the probability that I will awake without dire pain (in my view, an
> extremely small probability)
>
> the probability that I will be allowed to go free rather than be kept in
> a laboratory for experimentation or zoo for observation
>
> the probability that I will have or could earn sufficient funds not to
> starve to death or otherwise have a life so meager that it wouldn't be
> worth living.
Again, ethics, ethics, ETHICS! We, the cryonicists, will be the
very same ones to revive our friends. We will not be in the hands of
crazed or mad individuals looking for bodies to experiment with. It is
our duty here and now to state that we will care for our friends in
suspension, and we will see to it that they recieve a revival in
accordance to their wishes. If they express no specific wishes, we would
take the path that would lead to their highest chances of revival plus
their guaranteed well being.
> Is my analysis incorrect? I've found that standard argument for cryonic
> suspension (Some probability of revival is better than none) is weak if
> the probability of satisfactory revival is no better than 1 in a
> BILLION, which I estimate.
Many of your factors play little role in the actual process of
suspension or revival, for the above reasons. You should reconsider your
position. Skepticism is good, but it would be ashame if your desire for
life coupled with skepticism lead to your eventual death by not making
arrangements with a provider.
> TWO SMALLER QUESTIONS:
> 1. Cryonicists seem to ridicule "simple cloning" as far less desirable
> than suspension followed by revival. It would seem to me that "simple
> cloning" followed by a "reeducation program" in which the archived
> record of the person's memories, experience, etc., were told to the
> person upon revival is a reasonable alternative: You come back with a
> guaranteed healthy physical copy of the person. Given my
> already-starting-to-fade memory, seeing my personal archive of memories,
> etc., might not result in too great a loss from my current self. What
> am I not understanding?
Simply the fact that a clone is an individual in their own right,
it is not you, nor does it have the possibility of being you, only, at
best and with the most advanced technology, a decent impersonation of you.
If you are worried about your "fading memory", then take heart in the fact
that if we possessed the ability to implant memories into a clone, we
would certainly have the ability to retreive and reconstruct your own
memory.
> 2. What's the current thinking on the pros and cons of CryoCare vs.
> Alcor?
You should be better off looking into them yourself, or not in a
public forum, but rather via private e-mail. I can see this easily
degrading into a flame war, as has happened so often in the past. If I
had one criticism of all organizations, it's that they should learn to
cooperate rather than work against one another. This trait of hostility
seems to be slowly extinguishing itself, but some organizations are still
very defensive about critical comments.
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Roderick A. Carder-Russell
Student-Computer Science, Philosophy
Specializing in Man-Machine Symbiosis
Suspension Member-Alcor Foundation
Information Systems Consultant-Technology Syllogistics
www.shore.net/~rodc/home.html www.shore.net/~rodc/hcibci.html
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