X-Message-Number: 9076
From: Thomas Donaldson <>
Subject: Re: CryoNet #9065 - #9068
Date: Sat, 31 Jan 1998 00:49:31 -0800 (PST)

To John Pietrzak:

Steve Bridge makes good points.

Incidentally, if we are going to talk about "probability of revival", I would
have to say that as a mathematician we have no foundation at all for making
any estimate of probability. Whatever your feelings are about how likely or
unlikely revival may be, they are no more than feelings. I say this because
we have NO idea of all the possible outcomes, either those involving revival
or those not involving revival. Nor do we know how these outcomes relate
to one another (two related events clearly will have a different probability
than if we assume they are independent: example: what is the probability
that someone is female, and what is the probability that they are wearing
a dress? If those two events were entirely independent, then some men would
wear dresses, etc --- but they are not independent, and one can't be worked
out without reference to the other).

Not only have we no idea of the possible outcomes, but we actually have 
some control over the possible outcomes. No cryonics society, for instance,
is AGAINST research to improve our methods. And so far as those methods
improve, that affects lots of probabilities --- including the probability
that those now in suspension might be revived. (Imagine that cryonics grows
to be at least as big as life insurance in the next century, and the
methods for suspending people at that time have been perfected so that 
they are reversible. This will affect both the desire and the ability of
many to do research towards reviving earlier patients). Just by joining and
giving money to research you affect that probability.

This latter makes any serious estimates of probability quite pointless. To
some unknown degree, the probability of success is what YOU make of it, 
and you cannot estimate it well, whether or not you choose to join. If
enough people resigned or decided not to join, then the probability would
be lower; if enough joined, the probability would be higher. You are not
someone standing aside from cryonics whose actions will not affect it.

			Best wishes and long long life,

				Thomas Donaldson

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