X-Message-Number: 9076 From: Thomas Donaldson <> Subject: Re: CryoNet #9065 - #9068 Date: Sat, 31 Jan 1998 00:49:31 -0800 (PST) To John Pietrzak: Steve Bridge makes good points. Incidentally, if we are going to talk about "probability of revival", I would have to say that as a mathematician we have no foundation at all for making any estimate of probability. Whatever your feelings are about how likely or unlikely revival may be, they are no more than feelings. I say this because we have NO idea of all the possible outcomes, either those involving revival or those not involving revival. Nor do we know how these outcomes relate to one another (two related events clearly will have a different probability than if we assume they are independent: example: what is the probability that someone is female, and what is the probability that they are wearing a dress? If those two events were entirely independent, then some men would wear dresses, etc --- but they are not independent, and one can't be worked out without reference to the other). Not only have we no idea of the possible outcomes, but we actually have some control over the possible outcomes. No cryonics society, for instance, is AGAINST research to improve our methods. And so far as those methods improve, that affects lots of probabilities --- including the probability that those now in suspension might be revived. (Imagine that cryonics grows to be at least as big as life insurance in the next century, and the methods for suspending people at that time have been perfected so that they are reversible. This will affect both the desire and the ability of many to do research towards reviving earlier patients). Just by joining and giving money to research you affect that probability. This latter makes any serious estimates of probability quite pointless. To some unknown degree, the probability of success is what YOU make of it, and you cannot estimate it well, whether or not you choose to join. If enough people resigned or decided not to join, then the probability would be lower; if enough joined, the probability would be higher. You are not someone standing aside from cryonics whose actions will not affect it. Best wishes and long long life, Thomas Donaldson Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=9076