X-Message-Number: 9092
Date: Tue, 3 Feb 1998 00:36:59 -0500
From: "Stephen W. Bridge" <>
Subject: Cryonics probabilities

To CryoNet
From Steve Bridge
February 3, 1998
In reply to several messages on the probability of cryonics revival.
>Message #9077
>John Pietrzak, Thomas Donaldson, Steve Bridge, and Paul Wakfer all say
>more or less that the probability of success in reviving today's patients
>is unknown and unknowable.
That's because of one very major factor: We do not know which specific
macro or micro brain structures are essential for preservation of memory
and personality; so we cannot test whether or not we are preserving them
under ANY cryonics procedure.  Until we know whether there will be
anything LEFT to revive, it is a useless exercise to discuss
I do not dispute that Bob's mathematical abilities are far superior to
mine.  However, if there are a dozen major interdependent probabilities to
consider and any one of them turns out to be ZERO, then the probability of
success is ZERO -- even if the other factors are 95% likely.  And there is
no more important factor than this -- are we saving "the right stuff?"
>Message #9078
>From: "Berrie Staring" <>
Bob Ettinger's reply to Berrie (Message #9079) was right on the nose.
I would also recommend that Berrie check out my Cryonics Magazine article
"Selling Cryonics" (reprinted on CryoNet at some point) and the other
CryoNet marketing discussions from 2-3 years ago.  New people in cryonics
always seem to think that cryonics isn't selling well because we simply
haven't *tried* hard enough.
We may not have found the right message; but it sure isn't because we
haven't tried hard enough.  Bob's been doing this for 30 years, Tom
Donaldson for 25, me for 20, others for a long time as well.  We've
written and talked about cryonics until our fingers hurt and our voices
were hoarse.  Most people just aren't ready to listen yet.  But keep
talking; as Bob says, progress may be slow but we certainly do see
progress.  20 years ago, cryonics discussions were considered by most of
my acquaintences to be insane or offensive.  THAT climate has certainly
changed, and more people are curious and willing to listen.
I now get invited to parties because I'm "that interesting guy in
cryonics" instead of that being my "dirty secret" that they hope I don't
talk about.
It is possible that Jim Halperin's new book The First Immortal will help
turn the corner.  I think it has more general appeal than other cryonics
novels.  And it sure is optimistic about the future.  If not, we will keep
moving ahead steadily as we are now.
Steve Bridge

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