X-Message-Number: 9510
Date: Fri, 17 Apr 1998 17:56:27 -0400
From: Rafi Haftka <>
Subject: More on probability of cryonics

In a previous post I noted that you can use previous knowledge to explain
both why we can be optimistic on our chances and why laymen are justified
in ignoring us. I do not mean that you must choose between one view and the
other, but that
BOTH ARE CORRECT. Here is a remindr of the two views:


[Cryonicist's argument, boiled down]
> Given that in the past science and technology confounded the experts
> and made advances that had been considered impossible, we can be
> optimistic that this will happen in the future with respect to
> reversing freezing damage.

[Cryonics skeptic's argument, boiled down]
> Given that in the past many people claimed that they found ways to
> cheat death (mostly fountain of youth elixirs and such), and given the
> fact that all proved wrong, the probability that Cryonics is
> worthwhile is very small.


I will pick an analog from my area of aerospace engineering to make my point.

A hundred and fifty years ago, laymen were completely justified to dismiss
the notion that a man could fly, given the fact that many crackpots
(including  Leonardo da Vinci) tried and failed.

However, around that time, with increasing understanding of the mechanics
of flight, an informed person would have been justified in being optimistic
that EVENTUALLY people would fly.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Raphael(Rafi) T. Haftka                      <  >
      University of Florida                  Phone: (352)-392-9595
 Department of Aerospace Engineering,         Fax: (352)-392-7303
  Mechanics and Engineering Science         http://www.aero.ufl.edu/~haftka/
     Gainesville, FL 32611-6250               (beware, a lot of graphics!)
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