X-Message-Number: 9510 Date: Fri, 17 Apr 1998 17:56:27 -0400 From: Rafi Haftka <> Subject: More on probability of cryonics In a previous post I noted that you can use previous knowledge to explain both why we can be optimistic on our chances and why laymen are justified in ignoring us. I do not mean that you must choose between one view and the other, but that BOTH ARE CORRECT. Here is a remindr of the two views: [Cryonicist's argument, boiled down] > Given that in the past science and technology confounded the experts > and made advances that had been considered impossible, we can be > optimistic that this will happen in the future with respect to > reversing freezing damage. [Cryonics skeptic's argument, boiled down] > Given that in the past many people claimed that they found ways to > cheat death (mostly fountain of youth elixirs and such), and given the > fact that all proved wrong, the probability that Cryonics is > worthwhile is very small. I will pick an analog from my area of aerospace engineering to make my point. A hundred and fifty years ago, laymen were completely justified to dismiss the notion that a man could fly, given the fact that many crackpots (including Leonardo da Vinci) tried and failed. However, around that time, with increasing understanding of the mechanics of flight, an informed person would have been justified in being optimistic that EVENTUALLY people would fly. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Raphael(Rafi) T. Haftka < > University of Florida Phone: (352)-392-9595 Department of Aerospace Engineering, Fax: (352)-392-7303 Mechanics and Engineering Science http://www.aero.ufl.edu/~haftka/ Gainesville, FL 32611-6250 (beware, a lot of graphics!) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Check the web page of the International Society of Structural and Multidisciplinary Optimization (ISSMO) at http://www.aero.ufl.edu/~issmo/ for details about the MicroAV competition! Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=9510