X-Message-Number: 9616 Date: Mon, 4 May 1998 09:16:01 -0400 From: Rafi Haftka <> Subject: The logic of ignoring cryonics Previous posts debated the question of why people continue to ignore cryonics. Ettinger's article on the probability of the success of cryonics suspension may provide another partial answer. Recall that his thesis is that people use past experiences to estimate probabilities of future events, an approach grounded in Bayesian statistics. I believe that most people use this sound approach to protect themselves from making serious mistakes. For example, during my first few years in this country I read all the mail I received that promised opportunities to make money and get freebees. After being burnt a couple of time (I still own a piece of worthless land that cost me $5000), I automatically throw away all such offers. I know that some of the material I throw away contains legitimate and worthwhile offers. However, I do not trust myself to be able to tell which is which. I believe that most people develop similar defense mechanisms against new and fantastic projects that require substantial expenditures on their part. They will not raise this defense mechanism against something that does not require money, such as UFOs. But try to get them to invest in a ticket on a future flight to Mars, or in a new product that will revolutionize this or that industry, and most will not listen. They may be shielding themselves from worthwhile opportunities, like Cryonics, but they are right. The chance of making a costly mistake is too high. Understanding this defense mechanism has important implications to the cryonics movement. It means that we should create opportunities for people to get involved that do not require them to commit large sums of money. Opportunities for young people to get involved in research is one thing that comes to mind. Creating networks of volunteers who help in emergencies is another possibility. Rafi Haftka ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Raphael(Rafi) T. Haftka < > University of Florida Phone: (352)-392-9595 Department of Aerospace Engineering, Fax: (352)-392-7303 Mechanics and Engineering Science http://www.aero.ufl.edu/~haftka/ Gainesville, FL 32611-6250 (beware, a lot of graphics!) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Check the web page of the International Society of Structural and Multidisciplinary Optimization (ISSMO) at http://www.aero.ufl.edu/~issmo/ for details about the MicroAV competition! Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=9616