X-Message-Number: 9616
Date: Mon, 4 May 1998 09:16:01 -0400
From: Rafi Haftka <>
Subject: The logic of ignoring cryonics

Previous posts debated the question of why people continue to ignore
cryonics. Ettinger's article on the probability of the success of cryonics
suspension may provide another partial answer. Recall that his thesis is
that people use past experiences to estimate probabilities of future
events, an approach grounded in Bayesian statistics.

I believe that most people use this sound approach to protect themselves
from making serious mistakes. For example, during my first few years in
this country I read all the mail I received that promised opportunities to
make money and get freebees. After being burnt a couple of time (I still
own a piece of worthless land that cost me $5000), I automatically throw
away all such offers. I know that some of the material I throw away
contains legitimate and worthwhile offers. However, I do not trust myself
to be able to tell which is which.

I believe that most people develop similar defense mechanisms against new
and fantastic projects that require substantial expenditures on their part.
They will not raise this defense mechanism against something that does not
require money, such as UFOs. But try to get them to invest in a ticket on a
future flight to Mars, or in a new product that will revolutionize this or
that industry, and most will not listen. They may be shielding themselves
from worthwhile opportunities, like Cryonics, but they are right. The
chance of making a costly mistake is too high.

Understanding this defense mechanism has important implications to the
cryonics movement. It means that we should create opportunities for people
to get involved that do not require them to commit large sums of money.
Opportunities for young people to get involved in research is one thing
that comes to mind. Creating networks of volunteers who help in emergencies
is another possibility.

Rafi Haftka

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        Raphael(Rafi) T. Haftka                      <  >
      University of Florida                  Phone: (352)-392-9595
 Department of Aerospace Engineering,         Fax: (352)-392-7303
  Mechanics and Engineering Science         http://www.aero.ufl.edu/~haftka/
     Gainesville, FL 32611-6250               (beware, a lot of graphics!)
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