X-Message-Number: 9750
Date: Thu, 21 May 1998 10:44:21 +0100
From:  (John de Rivaz)
Subject: Re: research

In his book "A Demon Haunted World", Carl Sagan wrote:

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Suppose you are, by the Grace of God, Victoria, Queen of the United Kingdom 
of Great Britain and Ireland, and Defender of the Faith in the most 
prosperous and triumphant age of the British Empire. Your dominions stretch 
across the planet. Maps of the world are abundantly splashed with British 
pink. You preside over the world's leading technological power. The steam 
engine is perfected in Great Britain, largely by Scottish engineers, who 
provide technical expertise on the railways and steamships that bind up the 
Empire.

	Suppose in the year 1860 you have a visionary idea, so daring it 
would have been rejected by Jules Verne's publisher. You want a machine that 
will carry your voice, as well as moving pictures of the glory of the 
Empire, into every home in the kingdom. What's more, the sounds and pictures 
must come not through conduits or wires, but somehow out of the air, so 
people at work and in the field can receive instantaneous inspirational 
offerings designed to insure loyalty and the work ethic. The Word of God 
could also be conveyed by the same contrivance. Other socially desirable 
applications would doubtless be found.

	So with the Prime Minister's support, you convene the Cabinet, the 
Imperial General Staff, and the leading scientists and engineers of the 
Empire. You will allocate a million pounds, you tell them - big money in 
1860. If they need more, just ask. You don't care how they do it; just get 
it done. Oh, yes, it's to be called the Westminster Project.

	Probably there would be some useful inventions emerging out of such 
an endeavour - 'spin-off'. There always are when you spend huge amounts of 
money on technology. But the Westminster Project would almost certainly 
fail. Why? Because the underlying science hadn't been done. By 1860 the 
telegraph was in existence. You could imagine at great expense telegraphy 
sets in every home, with people ditting and dahing messages out in Morse 
code. But that's not what the Queen asked for. She had radio and television 
in mind but they were far out of reach. 	

	In the real world, the physics necessary to invent radio and 
television would come from a direction that no one could have predicted. 
[James Clerk Maxwell's work, performed entirely on individual initiative and 
with no real goal in mind.]
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Not that I am suggesting no cryonics research is done, but the problem I see 
with doing it today is that the technology that would revive cryopreserved 
people into good health may rely on something we know absolutely nothing 
about. I am sure the pessimism of Darwin and Kent is well justified in terms 
of present day knowledge.  However cryonics relies on the unknowable in 
present day terms. It is, of course, possible that something present day 
research finds out is one of the corner stones for the unknowable future 
progress. What worries me is that someone will decide in terms of present 
state of knowledge that the whole project of cryonics is impossible and 
abandon it. Notice how Darwin and Kent appear to get more pessimistic the 
more research they do (or fund).

To read The Demon Haunted World, please point your web browser at 
<http://ourworld.compuserve.com/homepages/JohndeR/booklist.htm>
and work you way down to the title. Click on it and read reviews etc. The 
Amazon site that you are then linked to also has audio cassette versions.

-- 
Sincerely,     * Longevity Report:  http://www.longevb.demon.co.uk/lr.htm
John de Rivaz  * Fractal Report:    http://www.longevb.demon.co.uk/fr.htm
**************** Homepage:http://ourworld.compuserve.com/homepages/JohndeR
    In the information age, sharing can increase world wealth enormously,
        because giving information does not decrease your information.

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