X-Message-Number: 9817
From: 
Date: Sat, 30 May 1998 12:22:37 EDT
Subject: prices, inflation etc.

In response to Dr. Hirsch's question about price stability and inflation etc.,
I'll add a bit to my post yesterday.

First I repeat that, as a matter of historical fact, CI prices have never been
raised, even in the high inflation years of the late 1970s and early 1980s.
Experience is usually a useful first clue, at least.

Second, note that, in periods of high inflation, interest rates are also high,
meaning invested funds can safely yield high returns. 

Third, CI pays no rent and services no debt, so is shielded from inflation in
those respects. Many services are provided by members without pay, and
inflation will still leave those costs at zero. Our fixed costs are relatively
low and could, if absolutely necessary, be brought down to almost nothing
except taxes, insurance, utilities, liquid nitrogen, and routine maintenance. 

Fourth, we have already begun to achieve some economies of scale, with larger
cryostats. Although one cannot confidently make projections based on small
numbers, still it seems fairly clear that things are picking up. The CI
patient population has doubled in the last three years, and inquiries are
becoming somewhat more frequent.  

More speculatively, when we grow enough we may revive some old ideas about
becoming self sufficient in liquid nitrogen and the energy to generate liquid
nitrogen. This would not necessarily have to be on the same premises, but at a
location suitable for thermopiles, solar collectors, wind farms, or whatever.

Most of the above pertains to maintenance costs. Costs of preparation could of
course rise with the level of sophistication of procedures. CI expects to
continue to offer current procedures, or better ones, at the current price.
Substantially more expensive procedures may be offered as options at higher
minimum prices. We may also develop methods cheaper than our current ones,
such as a combination of chemical fixation and moderately cold storage. (As
previously noted, this may become a social/political necessity, as well as a
practical and ethical positive.)

Perhaps the MOST important point--and of course this applies to some other
organizations as well as CI--is that the people managing the programs are
highly motivated to anticipate and prevent or fix problems. A cryonics
organization lives or dies on its reputation and performance, and its
patients' fates are likewise on the line. There will be the most strenuous
efforts to prevent any "January thaw." None of this guarantees that a badly
flawed plan can be saved, or that every potential catastrophe can be avoided;
but this consideration of motivation, COMBINED with the points outlined above
for CI, makes the bet a pretty safe one, in my opinion.

Robert Ettinger
Cryonics Institute
Immortalist Society
http://www.cryonics.org

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