X-Message-Number: 14452
From: "John Clark" <>
Subject: If so, where are they?
Date: Tue, 12 Sep 2000 12:00:27 -0400

In Message #14442  "Wilson" <> Wrote:


    >What makes us believe that alien races would be significantly more advanced
        >than we are? Is our solar system particularly new, in cosmological terms?

    >There could be a hundred million alien civilizations out there, all of 
    which
    >are at the "tentative spaceflight" level or earlier.

The Earth is about 4,700,000,000 years old, humans have been around for about

500,000, technology for 10,000, and we've been at the "tentative spaceflight 
level" for

less than 50. The probability another civilization would be anywhere near our 
level

of technology is almost zero. They'd either be using stone axes or very advanced

Nanotechnology to redesign the universe to their taste. The in-between stuff 
happens
in a flash, you'll never see it.


OK, so where are they? Either we're just the first or there's some unknown 
danger

(don't worry, this experiment is completely safe, I'll just press this button 
and...) that

destroys all civilizations after they go beyond a certain point. I hope we're 
just the first.

        John K Clark      

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